AI cycle desk

Buildout

Follow the sold-out layer. Tape, filings, and geo refresh when you open this desk.

02:09 PM UTC

Live tape

Model sleeve

+1.16%

Nasdaq 100

+0.87%

+0.85% SPX

Bottleneck tape

Compute

Hottest layer today · +2.05%

Zones

12 buy0 trim2 ext

Mechanical levels vs live last.

Wire

What can rock the book

Wire is catching up. Open the tab if this stays empty.

Action this tape

Mechanical zones vs live last. Silence on hold and watch.

Trim

None

Extended

Starter

Add

None

Deep add

None

Scorecard

Last is live. Zone is computed.

NameLastStarterAddTrimZoneWt

NVDA

Accelerators

218.29210.00–240.00185.00–210.00280.00Starter12%

AMD

Accelerators

516.13400.00–440.00360.00–400.00550.00Extended4%

AVGO

Custom + fabric

361.99330.00–370.00290.00–330.00430.00Starter10%

MU

HBM / DRAM

975.26900.00–980.00780.00–880.001,150.00Starter8%

LITE

Photonics

927.03760.00–840.00680.00–760.001,000.00Extended6%

VRT

Thermal / time-to-power

257.06240.00–280.00190.00–240.00340.00Starter2%

CRWV

GPU cloud

88.9980.00–95.0065.00–75.00130.00Starter4%

NBIS

GPU cloud

224.55200.00–230.00170.00–190.00280.00Starter

IREN

Powered data centers

43.8335.00–45.0028.00–34.0060.00Starter

MSFT

Hyperscaler

495.63460.00–510.00420.00–460.00620.00Starter8%

AMZN

Hyperscaler

256.78240.00–270.00215.00–240.00340.00Starter7%

CEG

Nuclear + merchant power

284.75260.00–310.00220.00–260.00380.00Starter8%

VST

Gas / retail power

148.38130.00–155.00110.00–130.00190.00Starter6%

PLTR

AI applications

167.23155.00–175.00130.00–150.00200.00Starter4%

Catalysts

Only events that can change a zone or a tripwire.

  • BOOK · Pre-market desk 08:00 ET

    First weekday pre-open note. Tape, overnight 8-Ks, prior-session flow.

    2026-09-10

    3d ago

  • BOOK · Weekly ecosystem + SEC

    Adds, removes, trims, EDGAR. Files to Drive BUILDOUT-Desk.

    2026-09-13

    today

  • MU · FQ4 FY26 after the close

    HBM tightness vs an already-extended tape. Binding for tripwire #2.

    2026-09-30

    17d

  • NVDA · Hugging Face close (~$11.9B)

    Phase-3 software lock-in. Does not change Phase-1 supply.

    2027-H1

  • VRT · UIG / UtilityInnovation close

    Time-to-power layer. Satellite. Starter 240–280 vs live tape.

    TBD

  • CEG · Next AI offtake / PPA

    Phase-2 confirmation for CEG, VST, PWR.

    TBD

Decision log

Never silent-edit the map. One line per call.

  • 2026-09-09 · ADD-WATCH · VRT

    8-K: UtilityInnovation ~$1.45B + earnout. Time-to-power. Not core on week 1.

  • 2026-09-09 · ADD-WATCH · GOOGL

    Largest tracked capex checkbook. Third ballast. Do not equal-weight.

  • 2026-09-09 · NO-CHASE · MU

    Own, don't chase. Add zone 780–880. FQ4 30 Sep is the tell.

  • 2026-09-09 · NO-CHASE · LITE

    Trim band 1000. Pre-define 25–33% scale if it extends without a rest.

  • 2026-09-09 · WAIT · AMD

    Starter waits at 400–440. Size only on a real dip.